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During the 2023-24 school year, the Poudre School District administration formed a Facilities Planning Committee to address financial implications of student-based funding. The action group, primarily consisting of district employees, made preliminary recommendations in October, 2023, and after lengthy public hearings, the School District Directors formally identified several neighborhood schools for closure, with the intention of transporting students to consolidation sites, as necessary under the plan. However, for various reasons the initiative was paused on May 20, 2024, with lingering questions emerging. These issues remain unresolved.

Thus, after the expenditure of thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours of staff and volunteer time, the question that remains is “Why wasn’t the School Closure and Consolidation Plan adopted?”

First, focusing on school closures and consolidation as a way to meet budgets was misdirected from the start. Public education funding is a continual problem for large districts, in spite of the fact that Niche Ranking in Colorado Schools 2024 ranked PSD as #3 among districts with more than 25,000 students in per pupil funding. Since PSD citizens traditionally support bond and mill initiatives, a mill levy proposition should have been the first action taken by the Board, rather than resorting to it as a desperate response to the threat of school closures. These certainly should never have been placed as a consent agenda item when it first came to the Board!

Second, public school enrollment is a function of the number of recorded local births, plus the number of students having moved into the district, the number of students transferring from private or charter schools, and the number of students from out-of-district, minus the number of families moving out of the district and the number of students opting for private or charter schools. Thus, forecasting kindergarten enrollment from birth rate alone is problematic, at best.

Third, a decision was made to rely on an outside consultant for this analysis, rather than on the State Demographer for Colorado. The FLO Analytics population forecast of – 9.25 percent by 2026-27 is in conflict with that of the State Demographer, who projects a 14 percent increase in children ages 0-4 and a stable population with no growth nor decline among 5- to 17-year-olds in Larimer County from 2020-2030.

Fourth, for public credibility, the Facilities Planning Steering Committee should have been constituted with key local communicators, with staff members in support roles. Such a committee would have had independent transparency and recommendation validity.

Fifth, a decision was made to focus on observed birth rate decline alone, to the neglect of an opposing Flo Analytics’ own forecast that new housing developments, projected and already under construction, would bring in an additional 2,038 new students – in the same time period as the forecast birth rate decline!

Sixth, the school board and administration underestimated the quality and intensity of potential initiative backlash. Such dramatic changes made without sufficient input and advice from those most affected by them undermines morale for those who will be “closed and consolidated upon,” as well as confidence in district leadership.